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Now See the Perils of Prediction

My prediction that the Footsie would rise by 7% today Monday October 6th has been met by a fall of nearly 7% instead. Pow!.

Rational judgment of the fundamentals failed miserably to predict the markets fear of gathering contagion throughout Europe. The market is now literally besieged with fear. The sky is falling in. Now see the perils of prediction.

Its a lesson well-learned for all who forget - no one can forsee the future. the future is unknowable. The next 5 minutes is unknowable. Planning for a future you may not have is an exercise in pure hope, nothing more. Never believe anyone who purports to know what will happen next, no matter how expert or how experienced. If you insist on punting your money on the stock exchange, or into property, or any other asset class, please recognise you are taking a complete calculated gamble in which you will either be right or wrong - in time. You dont know which it will be, or when it will be. So never try to convince yourself that you can see into the future.

Your investment is a guess, nothing more or less; an act of faith that others can manage your money better than you or the market is bound to do this or that.

Your house is for living in; its not your retirement fund.